THE TRANSPORTATION FACTOR IN WCS DISCOUNTSince Canada's export pipeline are oversubscribed, additional production out of Western Canada is most likely to be shipped by rail, or even by truck, if traveling a very short distance.

The proposed Keystone XL pipeline to the Gulf Coast offers the best marketability, since the USGC is a very large market for heavy crude with a shortage of stable suppliers.

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Since Canada's export pipelines are at capacity, the incremental barrel of oil needs to be shipped by rail, which has a higher transportation cost and drives up pricing discounts.

While rail transport is less efficient and more expensive per barrel, it has the distinct advantage of being able to access more markets, reaching almost any corner of North America.

The two most commonly quoted benchmarks are West Texas Intermediate (WTI), priced out of the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma, and Brent, priced out of the UK North Sea.

RAIL: GOING WHERE THE PIPELINES DON'T GOWhile getting a new pipeline constructed can be a regulatory nightmare, moving crude by rail is comparatively simpler and less susceptible to public backlash.

Although crude prices largely rise and fall together, there can be significant price differences between the different streams, depending on the type of crude (quality), supply and demand fundamentals (marketability) and costs to transport the crude to the final customer (logistics).

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Federal permits for Enbridge's Northern Gateway Pipeline were cancelled by the Federal Court of Appeal, in a ruling very similar to the recent cancellation of the Trans Mountain Expansion.

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Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, pipeline infrastructure running to refineries and export terminals in the Gulf Coast has become constrained, forcing many producers to truck their crude to markets.

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In fact, many medium and heavy sour grades were also purchased at premium prices, due to high demand for heavy crude in the Gulf Coast and oversupply of light oil from the Permian Basin.

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Canadian crude into the Midwest continued to increase, the region no longer needed to import volumes from the Gulf Coast, and instead began blending heavy Canadian crude with light Bakken oil, produced in North Dakota and transported east by rail.

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THREE DRIVERS OF PRICE DIFFERENCESAlthough crude prices largely rise and fall together, there can be significant price differences between the different streams, depending on the type of crude, where it is produced and where the final customer is located.

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Since Canadian refineries are relatively simple and already at capacity, a majority of Alberta's heavy oil is exported to the US, which has a much greater capacity to handle heavy sour crude.

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While pipeline construction in Canada has been subdued in the past decade, construction south of the border has in part attempted to keep up with growing output from Alberta.

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Politics, aside, the pipeline has the distinct advantage of being routed through a less populated area than Trans Mountain, as well as being located 670 km closer to China, now the world's largest importer of crude.

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This kind of graphical analysis is a really useful way to help you understand what you're dealing with, because if you cant see it, you cant really understand it.

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As the US produces more crude domestically and moves to export more of its oil, flow has been reversed, moving crude from inland regions to export terminals in Texas and Louisiana.

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